Budget Speech 2014

Mister Speaker, ultimately it is the state of the global economy and the dynamism and agility of the SA economy that shapes inclusive growth, job creation and development.

The global economy, with which SA is connected, is not yet on a path of sustained recovery. In the words of the G20 communique, “ the global economy remains far from achieving strong, sustained and balanced growth”.

Global growth gathered momentum in 2013, led by a recovery in the advanced economies. This recovery is expected to continue into 2014, to an expected 3.9 per cent in 2015.

The recovery in the United States has prompted the US Federal Reserve to taper its quantitative easing programme. We have already seen considerable swings in capital flows in South Africa and other emerging markets. Interest rates are likely to rise. Currencies will be weaker and volatile.

Growth in Europe, which is a major trading partner, remains subdued. Doubts about its banking system remain.

However, China still grows at a dynamic 7.5 per cent and India is expected to record 5.4 per cent this year. Brazil remains flat at 2.3 per cent.

The African continent is expected to grow at around 6 per cent a year over the next two years.