Usury Act, 1968 (Act No. 73 of 1968)

Report on Costs and Interest Rates in the Small Loans Sector

5. Risk weighting assessment

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We have argued earlier that the risk of microfinance institutions can be divided into two sources, viz., systemic risk (the risk that the system transfers to the institution) and organisation specific risk (the risk originating from the clients or from inside the organisation). These risks are presented and assessed in the next tables. At this moment we are not quantifying the risks in detail. We have argued in section 4.7 how these risks can be quantified. In this table we wilt attach a value to each risk (in generic form).

 

Table 21: Risk estimate based on systemic risk

Risk and Functioning

Assessment

Estimated cost expressed as impact on income

Weighting / importance

Impact on Microfinance institutions due to impacts on the broad financial market

Medium but small impact due to cost structure of microfinance institutions

1 - 2%

 

General increase in wages,

transport costs, etc

Medium to high

5 - 10 %

 

Market collapse because of over indebtedness

High

10 - 50 %

 

More unemployment, especially of government employees

High

10 - 20%

 

Segmentation of market cause risks - sharing of information

Medium

5 - 15 %

 

 

The estimated cost is provided as a range covering the different types of microfinance institutions, ranging from cash lenders, micro enterprise lenders to term lenders. We have estimated that newly 7 per cent of government employees on the PERSAL system are vulnerable in terms of over-indebtedness. We have provided several salary slips (see Annex 7) which indicate the severity of this debt trap of certain employees. This translates into nearly a one billion Rand potential loss (if we assume that provident funds or other collateral does not cover these diet) that wilt impact on the term-lenders specifically.

 

Table 22: Risk estimate based on organisational risk originating from outside the firm

Risk and Functioning

Assessment

Estimated cost expressed as impact on income

Weighting / importance

Client cannot provide security

Medium - reality of this market, have collateral substitutes

3 - 7%

 

Income risk - client cannot pay

Low, medium, high

5 - 7%

 

Income risk - client will not pay

Medium

2 - 3%

 

Policy & legislation risk

Low to medium

1 - 5%

 

 

Most clients in the microfinance market have scarce collateral. Until recently this was a severe problem as most financiers based their collateral estimates on conventional concepts of collateral, for example, fixed property. Innovative thinking in the microfinance sector led to the use of repayment ability, with assets like provident and pension funds serving as collateral. There are however still risks pertaining to collateral. Losing your job implies a severe impact on your repayment ability. Also, you put future consumption at risk when you use your provident fund to guarantee consumption loans (as example as this should not happen in the sector).

 

Policy and legislation risk refers to the changes to the sector that changes in legislation can initiate. A very good example is the growth of this industry based on the lifting of the Usury Act floor from zero to R6,000.

 

Table 23: Risk estimate based on organisational risk originating from inside the firm

Risk and Functioning

Assessment

Estimated cost expressed as impact on income

Weighting / importance

Technical risk - information technology

Medium to high

10 - 25%

 

Technical risk - financial technology

Medium to high

10 - 25%

 

Marketing risk - appropriateness of products

Medium

5 - 15%

 

Operational risk

Low to medium

5 - 15%

 

Price risk

Medium

5 -.15%

 

Human resource risk

Medium

10 -.15%

 

lnformation risk

High

10 - 30%

 

 

What about the risks the clients engage in when signing a loan contract?

Table 24: Risk estimate of clients entering into loans

Risk and Functioning

Assessment

Estimated cost expressed as impact on income

Weighting / importance

Lack of information - taking to high levels of loans and not understanding the implications of repayment

Serious problem

High

 

 

It will be incomplete if we do not provide an indication of the risk of the microfinance sector for the broader financial sector. In the next table this is presented.

 

Table 25: Risk estimate of the possible risks of the microfinance sector impacting on the broad financial sector

Risk and Functioning

Assessment

Estimated cost expressed as impact on income

Weighting / importance

Risk of collapse in microfinance market - consumer finance

Low to medium risk

Medium to high (not due to cost but to political backlash

 

market - enterprise finance

Medium

Setback for employment and job creation